Asia opts for a replay of cold war nuclear deterrence. The strategic significance of nuclear weapons in the south asian security equation is. This paper offers a coherent assessment of the stability created by nuclear deterrence between india and pakistan. Oct 16, 2014 in a different but less likely scenario, china could also fundamentally change its strategy and use its nuclear weapons within the framework of a limited deterrence or deterrence bydenial strategy. Joint chiefs of staff has said the alliance is based on mutually shared blood, echoing a south korean defense ministry statement that the rok and u. External support and help was critical, to varying degrees, for south asia s nuclear breakout 4.
Extended deterrence in a changing asia 3 foreign policy has been a very much commendable one. Patriot sale to jeopardise nuclear deterrence in south asia. South asian studies a research journal of south asian studies vol. To sum up, the concept of deterrence is considered as a remarkable tool to maintain peace. Cohen south asia nuclear futures6 in the creeping growth model, minimum deterrence is conceived of in larger numbers on the basis of some notion of redundancy against the event of a first strike. Indiapakistan and nuclear deterrence equation in region. The deterrence equilibrium in south asia serves as an assurance for peace and stability in the region. It has chosen to give a primary focus on asia, it has broadened the geographical boundary of asia to include south asia, and it has made steps forward to cement the alliance network in that newly defined indopacific region. Ballistic missile defence and multiple independently. The clash between state and antistate actors find, read and cite all the research you. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry, and conflict escalation in south. Tools to improve nuclear stability and deterrence in south asia 175. Nuclear deterrence in south asia an assessment of deterrence and stability in the indiapakistan conflict.
In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content. Deterrence stability, security doctrines and escalation. Deterrence is north koreas rationale for possessing nuclear weapons, and it could lead to an arms race in northeast asia. A strategic failure or beginning of regional stability deterrence means any strategy, force position or policy which is intended to persuade a potential enemy not to attack. Nuclear deterrence under the shadow of nonstate actors. Tactical nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south asia. May 24, 2017 most worrying of all is the fact that taiwan, a selfruled island that china has sworn to reunify with the mainland, by force if necessary, could secretly restart its programme at any time. By mark westh, maia juel giorgio, jakob wiegersma and tina madsen.
Policy architects international defense threat reduction agency. Chinas nuclear deterrence thinking comes from its classic military thought, which will be still the driving force for the theory and practice of its nuclear deterrence in the future. This doctrine is not a part of the nuclear doctrine, which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a fullscale declared war if the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Raging debate about stabilityinstability dynamic 6.
Understanding the pakistani perspective and assessing deterrence stability. In view of indias massive investment in the defence. Similarly, pakistan is developing its fourth khushab. North korea is perilously close to developing strategic nuclear weapons capable of hitting the united states and its east asian allies. Pdf nuclear deterrence in south asia suresh dhanda.
Nuclear crisis, escalation control, and deterrence in. Sep, 2017 this is an important debate, to be sure, but it is incomplete. Nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia. Against north korea, deterrence of a different kind. Pdf the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. Chinas existing nuclear philosophy will be maintained. Additionally, nuclear deterrence is continuing in south asia, despite the fact that conventional and nuclear programs of india and pakistan demonstrate different trends. Mar 27, 2018 deterrence only works well when decision makers behave in a rational manner.
The evolving dynamics of deterrence stability in south asia. It then takes some general theoretical assumptions of deterrence and examines them in the south asian context. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. He finds that south korea will pursue a full range of. Future of deterrence nuclear deterrence will be based on. Recently developed tnw systems like the nasr have the potential to merge conventional and. First, even a nuclear attack could not prevent the soviet army from overrunning western europe. Tactical nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south. New technologies and challenges to sustainable peace september 18, 2019 new nuclear technologies, and change in nuclear doctrines. May 15, 2014 the threeday conference is being organised by the south asian strategic stability institute sassi university sassi to analyse the challenges to deterrence stability of south asia. Second, the nuclear threat was of no use in cases of civil war, insurgency, and other smallscale conflicts, a read more.
The first page of the pdf of this article appears above. The genesis of south asian nuclear deterrence is an attempt to provide a complete picture of the dynamics of south asian nuclearization. What does the role of extended nuclear deterrence in asia tell us about. Nuclear deterrence i nsouthasia the 1990 indopakistani crisis devin t. The first part of this paper highlights the debate between nuclear proliferation optimists and pessimists.
Uses and limitations of nuclear deterrence in asia rand. The question of deterrence is not simply about preventing war, because a nuclear north korea can act in several ways that threaten u. The national command authority on wednesday stated that nuclear deterrence is a factor of stability in south asia and expressed its resolve to maintain full spectrum deterrence, in line with the policy of credible minimum deterrence. The first nuclear learning course nuclear south asia. History, current views, and implications foreign policy at brookings arms control series paper 5 february 2011. Deterrence only works well when decision makers behave in a rational manner. Oct 05, 2017 against north korea, deterrence of a different kind. South asias lessons, evolving dynamics, and trajectories. This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. South asia s nuclear postures and south asian stability, international security 34, no. An assessment of deterrence nuclear deterrence in south asia and stability in the indian pakistan conflict autumn 2010 maia juel giorgio, tina sondergaard madsen, jakob wigersma, mark westh global studies bachelor module. Hagevty d i d india and pakistan nearly fight a nuclear war in 1990.
Extended deterrence and assurance for allies in northeast asia one born in blood. Even before overt nuclearization of south asia deterrence was used twice in crisis situation to avoid an allout war. These works in the existing literature provide us a significant understanding of india. Nuclear deterrence in south asia 81 nuclear deterrence rebuts this perspective, suggesting instead that proliferation has stabilizing effects. Waning nuclear deterrence in south asia bulletin of the. Surgical strikes and deterrencestability in south asia. Similarly, failure to ensure strategic stability could result in new forms of nuclear competition and even arms racing among the major powers, with a corrosive effect on. Diplomacy to reduce nuclear risks has lagged far behind nuclear weaponrelated advances and doctrinal change. On the other hand, sumit ganguly, in his assessment of nuclear stability in south asia, contends that deterrence stability is indeed in place, though the resultant statusquo arguably falls in favour of pakistan deterrence stability in south asia 4 surgical strikes and deterrence stability in south asia. Sagan, the evolution of pakistani and indian nuclear doctrine, in dynamics of deterrence. They merged the concept of nuclear deterrence with all this and also looked at the. However, in the post overt nuclearization era, both the belligerent foes involved in one low. With the withdrawal of us nuclear weapons from south korean in 1991, there are no us nuclear weapons forward deployed in the asia pacific region.
Pdf the evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia. A free and open source software to merge, split, rotate and extract pages from pdf files. Extended deterrence and strategic stability in northeast asia 3 security council could result from a significant failure of extended deterrence. He said that the book helps us better understand the stresses on nuclear deterrence emanating from indias irresponsible conduct as a nuclear weapon state. New technologies and challenges to sustainable peace crc press book this book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability. Pakistans domestic constraints mubeen adnan university of punjab, lahore. Deterrence and the reliance on nuclear weapons can create instability and dangerous. These commonalities promote the possibilities for establishing an acr in south asia, which could ensure deterrence stability. Chari setting out the problem t would be banal to reiterate that indopak relations are crisisprone. An overview, prepared by rodney jones and released by the defense threat reduction agency, 3 april 2002 pdf nonproliferation projects south asia resource page.
The paper discusses several possible developments which might affect the efficacy of these viewpoints, and considers some measures for surmounting the limitations of deterrence. Indeed, mutual deterrence and disarmament are two opposing concepts. Escalation control, deterrence diplomacy and americas. What may be surprising, however, is how complicated and contentious the normative analysis of the strategy of nuclear deterrence has proven to be. Apr 26, 2017 just as avidly nuclear strategists articulate their wares, antinuclear practitioners must showcase nuclear dangers to induce selfdeterrence in decision makers. The stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia asiapacific. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry and conflict escalation in south asia and if nuclear weapons are acquired by two states that are traditional and bitter rivals, should that not also foster our concern. Leaders in both india and pakistan must recognize that a continued cold warstyle military arms buildup, absent a framework for conflict resolution, threatens the stability of deterrence in south asia.
In northeast asia, the united states faces a special challenge in demonstrating the credibility of extended deterrence. Patriot sale to jeopardise nuclear deterrence in south asia pakistan times foreign desk report washington us. A small storm in south asias nuclear teacup last month provides an entry point into using indias case in an imagined nuclear aftermath as example. In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content nuclear deterrence i nsouthasia the 1990 indopakistani crisis devin t. Conflict resolution and promotion of regional cooperation in south. During 1945, realizing the devastating impact of nuclear weapons, british prime. India s acquisition of the patriot missiles system can jeopardise the existing nuclear deterrence in south asia by tilting the strategic balance in favour of new delhi, diplomatic observers in washington said. Indias offensive security doctrine backed by its nuclear weapons is a serious setback to the existing nuclear deterrence stability in south asia. North korea, in particular, seems to regard its small nuclear arsenal as a short.
Mirv program and deterrence stability in south asia that indias develop ment of mirv. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear. Deterrence stability and the conventional balance of forces in south asia 5 christopher clary, massachusetts institute of technology strategic restraint regime 2. A small storm in south asia s nuclear teacup last month provides an entry point into using indias case in an imagined nuclear aftermath as example. Pakistans stabilisationdestabilisation dilemma 51 tactical nuclear weapons nasr and prahaar tactical nuclear weapons have arrived in south asia, unfortunately, without a true understanding of the nature of these weapons. North korea and nuclear weapons georgetown university press. Nuclear weapons and deterrence international strategic and. Escalation control, deterrence diplomacy and americas role in south asia s nuclear crises. This book recommends a renewed intellectual effort on nuclear deterrence.
Fsi cisac why nuclear deterrence can work on north korea. The three countries have been evaluated on their strategic culture, the role of nuclear weapons in their overall military strategy, the nature of public opinion, responses to the various arms control treaties, and foreign policy choices. It covers the historic evolution of the technological developments of the indian and pakistani programs and the nuances of the countries respective policies towards the international nonproliferation regime. Rhetorical question by kenneth waltz, 19811 india and pakistan have maintained a relationship of animosity since partition in 1947. However, since 1998 nuclear deterrence is overtly practiced in south asia. Pdf on mar 24, 2010, mohan malik and others published the stability of nuclear deterrence in south asia. An examination of attitudes current in 1964 toward the subject of nuclear deterrence in asia. It assesses the stability of indopakistani nuclear deterrence and argues that, while deterrence dampens the likelihood of escalation to conventionaland possibly nuclear war, the chronically embittered relations between new delhi and islamabad mean that deterrence failure resulting in major warfare cannot be ruled out. Strategic imperatives for deterrence stability in south asia. Therefore, it will be a direct blow to peace and stability of the world, in general, and south asia, in. Asia assumed a new urgency in the aftermath of the nuclear tests by.
Prior to overt nuclearization of south asia, the discourse on nuclear deterrence between india and pakistan was primarily based on theoretical grounds. Abstract india and pakistan are two countries that, having tussles since the day they emerged on the. The study of muslim law in south asia highlights two important points. This is hardly surprising, given that everyone considers a full scale nuclear war just about the worst thing that could ever happen.
The stimson centers krepon adds, pakistan is a disadvantaged state that. South asian voices savanalysis from the subcontinent. This is a carefully argued, empirically sound and theoretically deft analysis of deterrence stability and its limits in south asia. Just as avidly nuclear strategists articulate their wares, anti nuclear practitioners must showcase nuclear dangers to induce self deterrence in decision makers. Since 1991, the stimson center has examined the threat of conflict in south asia, ways to seek normal relations between india and pakistan, and means to reduce nuclear risks. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia military doctrines have also evolved to emphasize more rapid mobilization to engage in limited conventional warfare. It provides appropriate details about the diplomatic and strategic postures of both india and pakistan, and it discusses possible pathways for enhancing deterrence stability in the region. Deterrence stability and escalation control in south asia. This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the south asian region to. Nuclear weapons and deterrence stability in south asia.
Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations. Since their first nuclear test in 2006, north korea has struggled to perfect the required delivery systems. Nuclear deterrence, rivalry, and conflict escalation in. Why nuclear deterrence can work on north korea gettyimages847114660. The triadic relationship between india, pakistan and china and their nuclear weapons policies is analyzed in this volume. Nov 18, 20 it is fairly obvious to anyone familiar with the terrain of nuclear weapons, delivery vehicles and the weaponisation of space that it is the dynamics of competition between the us and china that acts as the trigger for many of the current happenings in asia including south asia. Shidore argues that two core operational aspects of indias strategic culture nuclear minimalism and strategic restraint are increasingly under stress, and that modifications of these precepts are likely to increase deterrence instability. In south asia, nuclear arsenal is seen as a great equaliser and the ultimate tool to counter adversarys present or future conventional strength. Our pdf merger allows you to quickly combine multiple pdf files into one single pdf document, in just a few clicks. The reasons, spelled out in chapter two, are many, but the core principle is straightforward. May 21, 2015 strategic imperatives for deterrence stability in south asia may 21, 2015 by zafar khan conceptually crafting a strategy for south asian deterrence stability is to understand that primarily escalation control is interdependent with deterrence stabilitythat is, escalation control may not occur without the possible application of deterrence.
The evolution of nuclear deterrence in south asia ciss insight, vol ii, no. As long as nuclear weapons are around, even in small numbers, deterrence is the safest doctrine to deal with them. South asian voices sav is a leading online policy platform for strategic analysis on south asia, hosted by the stimson center in washington, d. Deterrence generally refers to the ability to discourage an attack through the threat of retaliation, while. Notwithstanding those differences, extended deterrence remains a useful analytical framework in assessing security and stability in east asia and a helpful language in conversations between the united states, japan, and south korea. This 200page book evaluates the current state of deterrence on the subcontinent and looks over the horizon. Extended deterrence and strategic stability in northeast asia. This book provides the first detailed analysis of the way in which extended nuclear deterrence operates in contemporary asia. Nuclear deterrence, however, was subject to at least three major problems. In this way, the nuclear deterrence in south asia became one of the significant facets of the world politics. Michael krepon, the myth of deterrence stability between nuclear armed rivals, in deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia, ed. Failure of coercive pressure to effect nuclear reversal 24. Implications for minimum deterrence in south asia 95 basrur 1just to name a few in the indian nuclear domain.
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